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Chris Wysocki
Caldwell, NJ
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Tuesday, 23 December 2014
Irrational exuberance in action, that 5% GDP growth number is a total fraud
Look! Just in time for Christmas! That Obama guy finally got our economy back on track! Now get out there and spend, spend, spend!
At least that's what the media wants you to believe.
The U.S. economy roared into overdrive in the third quarter as consumer and business spending fueled the biggest expansion in more than a decade.
Gross domestic product grew at a 5 percent annual rate from July through September, the biggest advance since the third quarter of 2003 and up from a previously estimated 3.9 percent, revised figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a 4.3 percent increase in GDP.
Sounds amazing, right?
It's also too good to be true. But journalists aren't known for their economic prowess. And they're fully invested in "proving" Obama's success.
So here's the dirty little secret they aren't telling you.
The Commerce Department fudged the numbers by inserting the entire year's worth of Obamacare spending into 3rd quarter GDP. Presto! Instant 5% growth!
Back in June, when we were looking at the final Q1 GDP print, we discovered something very surprising: after the BEA had first reported that absent for Obamacare, Q1 GDP would have been negative in its first Q1 GDP report, subsequent GDP prints imploded as a result of what is now believed to be the polar vortex. But the real surprise was that the Obamacare boost was, in the final print, revised massively lower to actually reduce GDP!
In layman's terms, they initially put Obamacare in to make Q1 look less bad, then took it out when nobody was looking after they decided to blame their woes on the "polar vortex."
Fast forward 6 months, and with a small uptick in actual consumer spending (probably due to those falling oil prices, for which, btw, Obama can't claim even one iota of credit), it's time to reinsert the Obamacare factor to really pump up the numbers.
Here's Tyler Durden's handy chart showing the Q3 GDP breakdown:
As you can see, without Obamacare the consumer spending numbers would still be abysmal.
In short, two-thirds of the "boost" to final Q3 personal consumption came from, drumroll, the same Obamacare which initially was supposed to boost Q1 GDP until the "polar vortex" crashed the number so badly, the BEA decided to pull it completely and leave this "growth dry powder" for another quarter. That quarter was Q3.
Our economy "grew" because the government forced 9 million people to buy health insurance.
What are they going to do for an encore? Force 9 million people to buy a car from Government Motors?
Because otherwise, the stock market rally that's going on right now is the very definition of Irrational Exuberance.
Oh well. As the saying goes, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Posted at 15:23 by Chris Wysocki
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